Evolution of size-dependent flowering in Onopordum illyricum: A quantitative assessment of the role of stochastic selection pressures

We explore the evolution of delayed, size-dependent reproduction in the monocarpic perennial Onopordum illyricum, using a range of mathematical models, parameterized with long-term field data. Analysis of the long-term data indicated that mortality, flowering, and growth were age and size dependent. Using mixed models, we estimated the variance about each of these relationships and also individual-specific effects. For the held populations, recruitment was the main density-dependent process, although there were weak effects of local density on growth and mortality Using parameterized growth models, which assume plants grow along a deterministic trajectory, we predict plants should flower at sizes approximately 50% smaller than observed in the field. We then develop a simple criterion, termed the "1-yr look-ahead criterion," based on equating seed production now with that of next year, allowing for mortality and growth, to determine at what size a plant should flower. This model allows the incorporation of variance about the growth function and individual-specific effects. The model predicts flowering at sizes approximately double that observed, indicating that variance about the growth curve selects for larger sizes at flowering. The 1-yr look-ahead approach is approximate because it ignores growth opportunities more than 1 yr ahead. To assess the accuracy of this approach, we develop a more complicated dynamic state variable model. Both models give similar results indicating the utility of the 1-yr look-ahead criterion. To allow for temporal variation in the model parameters, we used an individual-based model with a generic algorithm. This gave very accurate prediction of the observed flowering strategies. Sensitivity analysis of the model suggested that temporal variation in the parameters of the growth equation made waiting to flower more risky, so selected for smaller sizes at flowering. The models clearly indicate the need to incorporate stochastic variation in life-history analyses

Geographies of Production I: Relationality revisited and the ‘practice shift’ in economic geography

This report considers recent developments and ongoing debates around relational economic geography, and a growing body work that has focused on economic practices as a means to better understand production processes and economic development. In particular it examines the critical reaction to relational thinking within the sub-discipline, and the nature of the debate about the degree to which relational work is - and needs to be - regarded as distinct from more traditional approaches to economic geography. It then considers how relational economic geography has become inflected towards an epistemological and methodological focus on practice. It argues that this engagement with economic practices provides the basis to respond to some of the limitations identified with earlier work, and opens up fruitful new potential for theorizing the nature of agency in the space economy

The potential impact on Florida-based marina and boating industries of a post-embargo Cuba: an analysis of geographic, physical, policy and industry trends

The information in this Technical Paper addresses the future of the US-Cuban marina and recreational boating industries from the geographic, physical, policy making and economic perspectives for a post-embargo Cuba. Each individual paper builds on the presentations made at the workshop, the information obtained in the subsequent trip to Cuba and presents in detailed form information which we hope is useful to all readers. (147pp.

Reduced-rank spatio-temporal modeling of air pollution concentrations in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution

There is growing evidence in the epidemiologic literature of the relationship between air pollution and adverse health outcomes. Prediction of individual air pollution exposure in the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atheroscelerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) study relies on a flexible spatio-temporal prediction model that integrates land-use regression with kriging to account for spatial dependence in pollutant concentrations. Temporal variability is captured using temporal trends estimated via modified singular value decomposition and temporally varying spatial residuals. This model utilizes monitoring data from existing regulatory networks and supplementary MESA Air monitoring data to predict concentrations for individual cohort members. In general, spatio-temporal models are limited in their efficacy for large data sets due to computational intractability. We develop reduced-rank versions of the MESA Air spatio-temporal model. To do so, we apply low-rank kriging to account for spatial variation in the mean process and discuss the limitations of this approach. As an alternative, we represent spatial variation using thin plate regression splines. We compare the performance of the outlined models using EPA and MESA Air monitoring data for predicting concentrations of oxides of nitrogen (NO$_x$)-a pollutant of primary interest in MESA Air-in the Los Angeles metropolitan area via cross-validated $R^2$. Our findings suggest that use of reduced-rank models can improve computational efficiency in certain cases. Low-rank kriging and thin plate regression splines were competitive across the formulations considered, although TPRS appeared to be more robust in some settings.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS786 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Anti-Coincidence Detector for the GLAST Large Area Telescope

This paper describes the design, fabrication and testing of the Anti-Coincidence Detector (ACD) for the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) Large Area Telescope (LAT). The ACD is LAT first-level defense against the charged cosmic ray background that outnumbers the gamma rays by 3-5 orders of magnitude. The ACD covers the top and 4 sides of the LAT tracking detector, requiring a total active area of ~8.3 square meters. The ACD detector utilizes plastic scintillator tiles with wave-length shifting fiber readout. In order to suppress self-veto by shower particles at high gamma-ray energies, the ACD is segmented into 89 tiles of different sizes. The overall ACD efficiency for detection of singly charged relativistic particles entering the tracking detector from the top or sides of the LAT exceeds the required 0.9997.Comment: 33 pages, 19 figure

Extreme Kuiper Belt Object 2001 QG298 and the Fraction of Contact Binaries

Extensive time-resolved observations of Kuiper Belt object 2001 QG298 show a lightcurve with a peak-to-peak variation of 1.14 +-0.04 magnitudes and single-peaked period of 6.8872 +- 0.0002 hr. The mean absolute magnitude is 6.85 magnitudes which corresponds to a mean effective radius of 122 (77) km if an albedo of 0.04 (0.10) is assumed. This is the first known Kuiper Belt object and only the third minor planet with a radius > 25 km to display a lightcurve with a range in excess of 1 magnitude. We find the colors to be typical for a Kuiper Belt object (B-V = 1.00 +- 0.04, V-R = 0.60 +- 0.02) with no variation in color between minimum and maximum light. The large light variation, relatively long double-peaked period and absence of rotational color change argue against explanations due to albedo markings or elongation due to high angular momentum. Instead, we suggest that 2001 QG298 may be a very close or contact binary similar in structure to what has been independently proposed for the Trojan asteroid 624 Hektor. If so, its rotational period would be twice the lightcurve period or 13.7744 +- 0.0004 hr. By correcting for the effects of projection, we estimate that the fraction of similar objects in the Kuiper Belt is at least 10% to 20% with the true fraction probably much higher. A high abundance of close and contact binaries is expected in some scenarios for the evolution of binary Kuiper Belt objects.Comment: 15 text pages,6 figures(Color),5 Tables, Accepted to AJ for May 200

Twin-Photon Confocal Microscopy

A recently introduced two-channel confocal microscope with correlated detection promises up to 50% improvement in transverse spatial resolution [Simon, Sergienko, Optics Express {\bf 18}, 9765 (2010)] via the use of photon correlations. Here we achieve similar results in a different manner, introducing a triple-confocal correlated microscope which exploits the correlations present in optical parametric amplifiers. It is based on tight focusing of pump radiation onto a thin sample positioned in front of a nonlinear crystal, followed by coincidence detection of signal and idler photons, each focused onto a pinhole. This approach offers further resolution enhancement in confocal microscopy

Lattice Model of Sweeping Interface for Drying Process in Water-Granule Mixture

Based on the invasion percolation model, a lattice model for the sweeping interface dynamics is constructed to describe the pattern forming process by a sweeping interface upon drying the water-granule mixture. The model is shown to produce labyrinthine patterns similar to those found in the experiment[Yamazaki and Mizuguchi, J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. \textbf{69} (2000) 2387]. Upon changing the initial granular density, resulting patterns undergo the percolation transition, but estimated critical exponents are different from those of the conventional percolation. Loopless structure of clusters in the patterns produced by the sweeping dynamics seems to influence the nature of the transition.Comment: 6 pages, 7 figure